May EUR/SEK Report: Euro to pay the price for weak eurozone fundamentals

Neither of these two currencies is particularly high up the market’s wish list at present. The eurozone is languishing in recession and the ECB is easing monetary policy, while Sweden is dealing with an economic soft-patch and staring down the barrel of an interest rate cut of its own. The euro has held up remarkably well amid robust reserve manager interest but we do see this giving way to a fresh bout of euro weakness in the second half of this year.

A decline in the Swedish unemployment rate has been confirmed this week. This was in line with expectations and whilst we don’t expect major improvements in this area, we are confident that the labour market is stabilising after the weakness that has been such a feature of the past six months or so. In addition, data has evidenced a strong upward trend in consumer confidence, which is at its highest level since August 2012. This has translated into better domestic consumption, as shown by an impressive 1.6% rise in retail sales in Q1.

However on the industrial side, conditions remain highly uncertain. Confidence in the Swedish manufacturing sector is not quite so buoyant and figures have been mixed. We have seen an excellent 0.8% industrial production figure for March, backed up by an extremely impressive new orders figure of 10.5%. However, April’s manufacturing PMI, which pointed to contraction, remains a source of concern. The underlying trend in manufacturing is tilted slightly upwards but with eurozone growth failing, clearly conditions are highly vulnerable. In addition, a seemingly soft start to Q2 contributed to a disappointing budget deficit of 0.8bn in April.

In terms of Swedish monetary policy, the inflation outlook will be the key driver and the SEK will be highly sensitive to developments in this area. The news has been SEK-negative on this front; Sweden’s CPI figure for April saw a much larger decline than expected, with the annual rate falling from 0.9% to 0.5%. This figure undershot not only market expectations but the Riksbank’s own projections, which could well convince the bank to cut interest rates to 0.75% at its next meeting in July. There will be major focus on May’s inflation data next month, but in light of the strong SEK, soft-ish Swedish growth and high unemployment, the case for a rate cut is compelling and the Riksbank will probably bow to pressure in July. This poses a significant risk to the SEK’s performance this summer.

On the issue of the strength of the SEK, comments from Swedish officials have weighed somewhat on the currency as well. Riskbank Deputy Wickman-Parak confirmed that the central bank is monitoring developments closely but importantly, she did note that alarm bells are not ringing at current exchange rate levels. Finance Minister Borg also chimed in, “We are not in a situation today where the SEK is a serious problem, but potentially it’s a problem.” Market concerns in this regard will likely limit SEK upside.

As far as the euro is concerned, it’s been relatively quiet on the debt crisis front. The way in which the Cyprus crisis was contained has strengthened market confidence in the future of the euro and represents another indicator that the worst of the crisis could be behind us. A look at Spanish and Italian 10-years bond yields, which at 4.0% are at their lowest levels since the end of 2010, tells you how calm market nerves are with respect the debt crisis. While Italy may have established a much-needed government, political instability certainly represents a key concern. Public discontent with eurozone austerity is building constantly and this looks set to be the central threat to the euro moving forward.

Growth data from the eurozone has remained reliably poor in recent months. The Q1 GDP figures revealed a double-dip French recession, extremely weak German growth (0.1%) and yet another quarter of negative growth for the eurozone as a whole (-0.2%). The gravity of this depression hasn’t been lost on the ECB, which at last cut interest rates to 0.50% at its last meeting. More worryingly for those long of the euro is the declared openness of the ECB to the policy of negative deposit rates. If this option is utilised, the euro really will suffer.

This week’s May PMI figures from the eurozone are expected to show a degree of stabilisation but we wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them disappoint once again. On the bright side, Germany stands a decent chance of gaining some momentum in Q2, based on some impressive industrial order and output figures in March. However, broadly speaking we remain very bearish on eurozone growth and expect further ECB monetary easing, or speculation in that regard, to weigh on the euro in the months ahead.

Middle and Far Eastern reserve managers continue to rotate out of dollars and into euros but this theme is waning somewhat. We hold a very firm outlook for the USD in 2013 and if we are correct, as we have been so far this year, there is a high probability that this will result in a weaker euro in H2 2013. The 8.50-8.65 range has held for the past month but we prefer the lower end of this range, with potential upside considered quite limited. Range-trading around the 8.50 level looks a decent bet for the next 2-3 months before paying another visit to the 8.30-8.35 trough that was established at the end of Q1. Neither currencies look attractive in the current environment but we believe the euro’s downside risks are greater.

Richard Driver
Currency Analyst

Caxton FX

Weekly Round-Up: USD on the front foot

Less dovish MPC minutes should follow upbeat Inflation Report

Last week’s Quarterly Inflation Report was decidedly positive, pointing to an earlier than previously expected return to the 2.0% inflation target on a two year horizon. The outlook for growth was also brighter, with near-term Q2 projections of 0.5%. With UK unemployment data impressing once again last week, there is plenty of positives for the BoE to focus on and this has been reflected within the latest speeches from MPC policymakers.

We expect this Wednesday’s MPC minutes to reveal a less dovish shift in the voting pattern away from QE, with perhaps Governor King the most likely candidate to swing his vote. With King stepping down from his position in just over a month’s time, an abandoned QE vote from him is unlikely to be a major source of strength for the pound. However, we do expect growing optimism over UK growth to be evidenced in the minutes and this should bolster market confidence that any plans for QE have been shelved for the foreseeable future.

UK data this week should confirm a drop in domestic inflation, which can be negative for a currency but is unlikely to be for sterling this week. There may be more room for manouvre on the inflation front (in terms of more QE) but the uptrend in growth should trump this. Not much is expected from Wednesday’s retail sales figure and on Thursday we should see the UK’s Q1 GDP figure confirmed at 0.3%. This should make the BoE’s recent 2013 GDP forecast of 1.0% uncharacteristically feasible.

All eyes on Bernanke and Fed minutes
Ben Bernanke testifies on Wednesday and his comments will be put under the microscope as the market continues its constant evaluation of the future of US monetary policy. Most of the talk out of the Fed last week was of the hawkish, anti-QE3 persuasion and this got the market thinking the Fed is edging towards tapering off QE3. However, Bernanke has time and again put the dampeners on such speculation and we suspect the same could be true again on Wednesday. There remains plenty of reason for caution, as US growth figures still lack consistency. Bernanke could well take some of the sting out of the dollar’s recent rally with more “wait and see” talk, but there is a good chance that talk of QE3 tapering within the Fed minutes could have the final say by spooking investors and giving the dollar another lift.

Eurozone growth disappoints as PMIs come into view
Last week’s eurozone GDP figures for the first quarter were reliably concerning, with France confirming an double-dip recession and German growth significantly undershooting. April’s monthly PMI growth figures will be released on Thursday morning and while a minor lift is expected, these updates invariably highlight the weak state of eurozone growth and more often than not disappoint. The euro decline that has characterised the past few weeks (albeit losses against the pound have been limited) looks set to be resumed before too long.

End of week forecast
GBP / EUR   1.1875
GBP / USD  1.5175
EUR / USD 1.2780
GBP / AUD 1.55

Sterling/euro has started the week very slowly with much of the eurozone on bank holiday. We remain comfortable with higher targets than the current price of €1.1835 but we are resigned to having to be patient for sterling gains. GBP/USD remains vulnerable against the dollar, which has been a top performer in recent sessions. Any sterling rallies will likely be sold against the dollar. As for EUR/USD, the year-to-date low around $1.2750 still looks set to be breached on the downside, perhaps by the end of this month.

Richard Driver
Caxton FX

Caxton FX Weekly Report: GBP in demand after GDP surprise

GBP on the up after firmer UK GDP figure

Last week brought the relieving news that the UK economy avoided another quarterly negative growth figure and therefore a dip back into technical recession. Not only this, the 0.3% showing was much better than 0.1% consensus forecasts. The dominant and usually reliable UK services sector drove this Q1 growth, while the manufacturing and construction sectors remained under pressure.

Growth in itself is positive for sterling, given the uncertainty surrounding the UK economy. However, sterling is also benefiting as the market prices out the expectation of more QE being announced at next Thursday’s MPC meeting. The Funding for Lending Scheme has been extended to January 2015 and greater emphasis has been placed on increasing lending to small businesses. This sort of monetary activism, combined with the GDP figure, will probably maintain a majority in favour of standing still on QE this month.

MPC member McCafferty reminded us yesterday that the UK faces a slow and difficult recovery but his cautiously optimistic tone is likely to be fairly typical among the committee.  The week ahead brings the PMI figures for the month of April and we are expecting modest improvements within all three of the UK manufacturing, construction and services sectors, which should bolster the pound’s growing demand in the coming sessions.

ECB to cut interest rates this week

ECB interest rate policy is the key topic in the FX markets at present. Last week’s German data looks likely to be the straw that broke the camel’s back as far as an ECB rate cut is concerned. Germany insists it doesn’t need or want a rate cut but the ECB must be seen to take action in the face of the eurozone’s deepening recession. We believe the rate will be reduced from 0.75% to 0.50%.

Some market players seem to have used the ECB rate cut story as an excuse to buy the euro this week, on the positive implications it might have for eurozone growth. There is a chance this could be the response on Thursday but we are still siding with the probability that a rate cut will be negative for the single currency in the short and long term.

Any near-term dollar rebound relies on a firmer US jobs report

This Friday’s US non-farm employment change will be a key driver for the US dollar over the next few weeks. It will shed some light over whether the March jobs report was a temporary blip or the start of an extended period of labour market weakness. We are expecting Friday’s figure to bounce back, which could well lend the greenback some support.

We remain confident that the soft finish to Q1, as evidenced by last week’s lower than expected US GDP figure (2.5% q/q), will prove temporary and that the dollar will return to strength in Q2. On balance, we don’t actually expect any major changes on monetary policy front from the Fed tomorrow.

End of week forecast

GBP / EUR	1.1950
GBP / USD	1.55
EUR / USD	1.2970
GBP / AUD	1.50

Having recently posted three-month highs of €1.19, GBP/EUR is trading half a cent lower this afternoon. The outlook remains positive in light of the improved UK economic picture and we expect a climb back above €1.20 in the weeks ahead. Sterling’s rally against the greenback may have a little further to go from the current $1.55 level, though we do expect it to top out soon. Looking at the big picture, the current price represents a decent level at which to buy USD. 

Weekly Analysis: UK to avoid Triple-Dip

UK triple-dip to be avoided but MPC doves could get their wish

The long-awaited UK GDP figure for Q1 will be released at 09:30 on Thursday morning and we are in line with consensus in predicting a meager 0.1% showing. Expansion in the UK services sector is likely to have bailed the wider economy out once again. A 0.1% showing would clearly be enough to avoid a triple-dip recession and should spare sterling a knee-jerk sell-off. A negative figure cannot, however, be discounted and we can expect a major sterling slide if this were revealed.

However, a 0.1% figure is unlikely to be enough to trigger a sterling rally ahead of what could be a very interesting May MPC meeting. Comments from one or two MPC members in the past fortnight have highlighted the scope for a voting swing in favour of QE in May and the BoE does have a habit of making important announcements in Inflation Report months (May being such a month). We can’t discount the argument that the majority of MPC members will prefer to wait for the incoming BoE Governor Mark Carney before committing to more easing, but we do see a marginally greater chance that the doves will have their wishes granted next month.

Eurozone PMIs set to disappoint once again

On the eurozone front, the major news starts flowing in early tomorrow morning. There is likely to be heightened sensitivity towards tomorrow’s figures given the indications from the ECB this month that they are open to an interest rate cut. On the whole, we expect tomorrow’s PMI updates from France, Germany and the eurozone to point to a deepening recession, with events in Cyprus likely to have weighed on business confidence.

As ever, the Asian sovereign reserve managers continue to buy the euro on dips. We see this as a factor which will slow the euro’s downtrend rather than sustaining the sort of rallies that characterized January’s move above $1.35.

US GDP to rebound strongly  

There has been plenty of coverage of the soft patch that the US economy is currently enduring and there is no doubt that bets that the Fed will wind down QE3 imminently are receding. Only today has US housing data disappointed, whilst last week saw manufacturing data undershoot expectations. However, the news from Q1 as a whole should be distinctly positive, revealing an annualized pace of growth of around 3.0%, well above Q4 2012’s 0.4% pace of growth.

The big picture focus in the US remains squarely on the labour market and we will have to wait until next Friday for the next major announcement in that regard. With Chinese, eurozone and US growth figures disappointing of late, global investor sentiment has turned rather downbeat. European and US stock indices are posting losses, which has seen the dollar bounce back a little. The except here of course is sentiment in the Asian markets, which is still being propped up by the Bank of Japan’s recent expansion of its QE operations.  

End of week forecast

GBP / EUR	1.1650
GBP / USD	1.52
EUR / USD	1.3050
GBP / AUD	1.4925

Sterling has stabilized since last Friday’s AAA rating downgrade from Fitch’s. However, we still think nerves over Thursday’s GDP figure could kick in over the next couple of sessions. These nerves are most likely to leave its mark on the GBP/USD pair, with the euro vulnerable to tomorrow’s PMI figures. EUR/USD is keeping its head above $1.30 for the time being, but a move below this big figure is “when” not “if” as far as we are concerned. 

NZD: Top of the Class

The New Zealand dollar has made an excellent start to 2013 – it was the top performing G10 currency during the first quarter. Global risk appetite has been remarkably buoyant this year and surging dairy prices have also reflected well on the NZD. Along with resilient market sentiment, domestic economic performance has been a key driver of the NZD’s strength over recent months, in an otherwise low growth global environment. The GDP number for Q4 2012 came in at an impressive 1.5% q/q, which was the fastest quarterly pace of growth in three years, well above expectations of 0.9% and this put 2012 growth at an impressive 2.1%.

As the recovery from the Christchurch earthquake continues, NZ manufacturing maintained a robust pace of expansion throughout Q1, particularly by global standards. The droughts that have troubled the country’s rural areas in recent months look set to impact GDP negatively to some extent but we still envisage growth of up to 3.0% in 2013, which will certainly outpace most developed economies.

Importantly, New Zealand’s house price index reached a new record high in March, which is a major factor that could drive the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise its already attractive 2.50% interest rate later this year. RBNZ Governor Wheeler himself has told us that if house prices stay where they are, then his hand may be forced on a rate hike, despite below-target NZ inflation. As things stand, the RBNZ is right at the front of the queue with respect to G10 central bank first-movers and we are looking at a hike around the turn of the year. The RBNZ and the NZ government’s frustrations with the strength of the NZD should of course be monitored but it really does seem as though both institutions are resigned to a strong currency for the foreseeable future.

The stuttering global economic recovery doesn’t exactly point to huge demand for a riskier commodity currency like the NZD. However, a look at the monetary policies of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan provides some explanation as to why risk appetite has been so durable this year. The huge liquidity being pumped into the financial markets by the Fed and the BoJ’s quantitative easing programmes has provided ongoing encouragement to market players to search for the higher yield of currencies like the NZD. Recent US data suggests that the Fed will continue with QE3 well into the second half of this year, while the BoJ has barely got started. As a result of this and NZ’s robust economic fundamentals, there has been a notable surge in foreign demand for NZ bonds, which is indicative of the fact that NZ represents a rare bright spot in the global economy.

Whilst most signposts point to NZD-strength this year, we fully expect periodic bouts of risk aversion to dampen the NZD’s performance at various points this year. Uncertainties remain with respect to the US, European and Chinese growth outlooks, whilst we are very wary of further debt crisis sagas in the eurozone. Nonetheless, we fully expect sentiment towards the NZD to remain positive during 2013, with these risk-off periods likely to provide investors with attractive opportunities to buy NZD on dips.

As far as the UK economy and sterling is concerned, the picture looks distinctly gloomy when compared to conditions in NZ. We expect a triple-dip recession will be narrowly avoided with a 0.1% Q1 figure next week but we doubt that UK growth will do little more than flat line this year, perhaps posting growth of around 0.5%. Accordingly, we fully expect the Bank of England to provide further support to the recovery in the form of more quantitative easing (along with other more unconventional monetary easing measures), possibly as soon as May. Sterling’s share of safe-haven flows has diminished considerably amid the loss of its AAA credit-rating and the government’s failure to make inroads on the UK debt profile.

This pair is posting fresh all-time lows almost on a monthly basis and we do not see it bottoming out just yet - the NZ picture is bright and the UK economy is failing to turn a corner. It will not be a straight line south but shelf-life above 1.80 certainly looks limited. A period of consolidation at current levels may continue for the next few months and beyond this we note prominent risks of a push down to the 1.70-1.75 area.

Richard Driver
Analyst – Caxton FX

For the latest forex news and views, follow us on twitter @caxtonfx and sign up to our daily report. 

Caxton FX Weekly Round-Up: Dollar-weakness persists

Fears of stalling US growth weigh on the dollar

The US dollar has been periodically knocked by weak US economic data in the past fortnight. Last month’s poor US jobs report has put the US economy in sharp focus and further indicators from the retail sales, consumer sentiment and manufacturing sectors have all disappointed of late. Unsurprisingly, bets have increased that the Fed will remain cautious and delay tapering off QE3 in the months ahead. This is largely behind the dollar’s poor performance of late. It should however be noted that last week’s Fed minutes were not as dovish as might have been expected. The message really was that one poor labour market report in itself has limited significance and we will have to wait to find out whether this is the start of a period of renewed labour market weakness.

Weak figures have kept the dollar hemmed in, which has allowed GBP/USD to test the $1.54 in the past week, while EUR/USD has seemingly put events in Cyprus behind it and consolidated around the $1.31 level. Higher levels for both pairs are possible in the sessions ahead.

Looking ahead to this week, it’s a fairly quiet data calendar as far as the US is concerned, which will be a relief to those long of dollars given the recent economic downtrend.

Sterling back in focus as the UK news comes thick and fast

Last week’s UK manufacturing and industrial production figure was encouraging and provided just a little more indication that we will avoid a triple dip recession when the Q1 GDP number is released on April 25. This week’s UK releases include the monthly inflation update, which we expect to remain steady at 2.8%, while we expect further evidence of slowing labour market progress on Wednesday.

There is a risk that Wednesday’s MPC minutes will reveal an extra voter in favour of QE, though on balance we expect any swing voters to wait until after next week’s UK GDP figure, particularly after last month’s encouraging UK services PMI figure. This may give sterling a bit of support in the short-term. Finally, Thursday’s UK retail sales is likely to show a bit of monthly contraction, though the market will probably take this in its stride given February’s barnstorming high street performance.

Euro to remain firm in the short-term

The single currency has enjoyed plenty of demand in April and this seems likely to continue this week. A leaked statement to be released by the G20 at the end of the week looks set to take a positive view of crisis-management in the eurozone. Tuesday’s German economic sentiment survey is also expected to remain firmly in positive territory. Other than that, Thursday’s Spanish bond auction should be noted, though pressures in this market are actually very subdued after a relatively quiet start to the month on the debt crisis front.

End of week forecast

GBP / EUR	1.1660
GBP / USD	1.5370
EUR / USD	1.3120
GBP / AUD	1.48

The recent theme of euro-strength looks set to persist for the time being. This is largely because the dollar is unlikely to turn the corner over the next few sessions, though we haven’t abandoned our positive long-term view of the US dollar by any means. Sterling is likely to trade somewhere in between these two currencies, probably testing the upside against the dollar, while remaining under pressure against the euro. For now, sterling trades at €1.17 and $1.53.

Richard Driver
Analyst – Caxton FX


For the latest forex news and views, follow us on twitter @caxtonfx and sign up to our daily report.

Caxton FX Weekly Outook: GBP/EUR, GBP/USD

Triple-dip UK recession should be avoided

The past week’s data releases enable us to make an assessment of the UK economy’s overall performance over Q1. The March PMI figures revealed further contraction (albeit at a slower pace) within the UK manufacturing and construction sectors. Thankfully, the UK services sector beat expectations for a third consecutive month with the best figure since last September. The PMI data points to a Q1 UK GDP figure of 0.1%, hardly the sort of figure to trigger a sterling rally but it will still represent a major bullet dodged. Tomorrow afternoon will bring the release of a notable GDP estimate, ahead of the official release on April 25.

What the market will want to know is what this all means as far as the Bank of England’s monetary policy is concerned. Our bet is that a 0.1%, or similarly anemic growth figure, will be sufficient to convince a majority of MPC members to vote in favour of additional quantitative easing. We think there is a good chance of this happening next month, which will be a threat to the pound.  It’s a pretty quiet UK calendar this week, with tomorrow’s UK manufacturing and industrial production figures for February attracting perhaps the most interest. Some growth is expected, though not enough to recoup January’s awful showings.

US data disappoints and the dollar feels the heat

The all-important monthly US labour report has put the US dollar on the back foot by coming in way below expectations. The weakest jobs growth in nine months has had the market, us included, paring back expectations of a QE3 wind-down this summer. This lack of progress in the US labour market will swing the balance in favour of Bernanke and his fellow pro-QE doves. On the whole, this jobs report does nothing to change the fact the US recovery is far out pacing those of the UK and the eurozone but it is a notable development nonetheless.

We will get some more insights as to the Fed’s policy outlook when its meeting minutes are released on Wednesday night, while Friday brings some important US figures in the form of consumer sentiment and retail sales updates.

Euro rallies but Draghi’s comments point to weakness down the line

There was no interest rate cut from the ECB last week but Draghi’s press conference revealed a distinct shift in dovish rhetoric. There was “extensive discussion” as to a rate cut this time around and it seems as though Draghi has given up on his prediction of a stabilization in the eurozone recession in H1 2013, before a recovery in H2. Downside risks to growth were emphasized, as Draghi finally woke up to the appalling data that has continued to flow out of the eurozone throughout 2013.

End of week forecast

GBP / EUR	1.1675
GBP / USD	1.5375
EUR / USD	1.31
GBP / AUD	1.4850

Sterling is trading up at €1.1730, well down from its recent highs of €1.1850. The pound’s disappointing session today could well set the tone for a poor week, particularly with the euro making decent progress across the board. A weaker dollar is helping matters as far as the euro is concerned. From our standpoint, there have been enough debt crisis reminders (from Portugal most recently) to keep any major move for EUR/USD above $1.30 in check. We are still confident of lower levels for this headline pair in the coming weeks. GBP/USD has a decent chance of climbing up to $1.54 in the sessions ahead, which would represent a decent opportunity to buy USD, given the bigger picture of UK economic underperformance.

Richard Driver
Analyst – Caxton FX


For the latest forex news and views, follow us on twitter @caxtonfx and sign up to our daily report.

    

April 2013 Outlook: Sterling edges higher as debt crisis resurfaces

After an awful start to the year, sterling has benefited from a welcome boost on the exchange rates in recent weeks. A couple of positive domestic economic developments have helped matters but events in the eurozone have been the key driver, helping to put the UK’s troubles in perspective. Domestic growth data in March did little to significantly improve the outlook for the UK recovery, though a couple of bright spots have provided a much-needed source of hope. There has also been a lack of further dovish leanings within the Bank of England, though we do expect more QE to be announced in May.

There was a collective sigh of relief that Cyprus avoided an unprecedented euro-exit and more

importantly that the eurozone banking system avoided the shockwaves which would inevitably follow. Nonetheless, events in Cyprus have understandably shaken the euro in the past month. The bailout deal that Cyprus reached with the Troika will leave the country deep in recession for a long time to come but this won’t be the market’s primary concern. Alarm bells are ringing following mixed rhetoric from within the EU leadership over whether the “bail-in” – where private investors and depositors, not taxpayers footed the bill for the refinancing – represents a special case or not. Some dangerous precedents have been set and with other larger eurozone strugglers such as Portugal and Italy exhibiting some tell-tale signs of crisis further down the line, the euro could be set for a troublesome few months.

GBP/EUR

Cyprus has investors fleeing for safety

Sterling looks to have bottomed out against the euro for the time being. The wave of anti-sterling sentiment has abated for now, amid a feeling that most of the bad news is already out in the open with respect to the UK economy. If the last few weeks have taught us anything, it’s surely that all the bad news is certainly not out in the open with respect to the eurozone.                      

                            

The pound emerged from the Annual Budget more or less unscathed, despite Osborne revealing that the Office of Budget Responsibility has slashed its 2013 GDP expectations from 1.2% to just 0.6% (which will most likely be undershot). Osborne effectively passed the buck to the Bank of England in terms of efforts to stimulate UK growth, directly expanding its mandate to that effect.

The latest from the Bank of England is that Mervyn King and his two fellow doves (Fisher and Miles) remain in the minority on the key quantitative easing debate, with the other six members seemingly too concerned with rising UK price pressures. In addition, the March MPC minutes revealed that there were fears surrounding an “unwarranted deprecation in the value of the pound,” which will concern many of those betting against the pound. We feel safe predicting that there will be no dovish majority in favour of QE in this Thursday’s MPC meeting, though we see a probability that we will see the voting swing in favour in May.

UK Q1 GDP figure comes into focus

Growth in the UK clearly remains very weak indeed. February’s data revealed the worst monthly construction growth in three years, whilst manufacturing is also firmly in contraction territory. Gladly, there was some relief in that the dominant UK services sector posted its best figure in five months and February’s 2.1% retail sales growth was excellent.  However, the key issue of whether or not the UK economy will avoid a triple-dip recession, when its Q1 GDP figure is announced on April 25, remains finely balanced. The March PMI figures released over the coming sessions will be highly significant; this morning’s manufacturing update got things off to a weak start but as ever, the pressure will be on Thursday’s services figure to deliver again.

Dangerous precedents will hurt the euro

While, there have been some rare sources of positivity with respect to domestic developments, this pair’s recent climb is explained mostly by events in the eurozone. Cyprus stole the headlines; the dreaded euro-exit has been avoided once again but the market has been left with some rather uncomfortable lessons. In a fundamental shift in eurozone banking relations, private individuals and companies with large amounts of cash in European banks now find themselves at risk of other potential ‘bail-ins’ in other struggling nations. This new credit risk is likely to leave a major psychological mark on euro-depositors and will have many heading to the exits and targeting perceived safer options like the GBP and USD.

Where will the next debt crisis hotspot be? Italy is looking a decent bet. Political instability is not the only issue the country faces, economic contraction remains a major issue and perhaps more pressingly, the health of Italian banks is deteriorating at an alarming rate. If things continue at this rate then Italy could find itself in a similar position to Cyprus, in need of recapitalising its banks, with Germany opposing a fix-all bailout from the European Stability Mechanism.

Some dangerous precedents have been set in Cyprus in terms of depositors being forced into a ‘bail-in,’ senior bondholder suffering haircuts, major and extended capital controls being implemented, the ECB imposing strict deadlines on their liquidity provision. Lines in the sand have been drawn, which are fundamentally likely to undermine confidence in the euro.

Debt crisis to one side, eurozone data has remained disappointingly true to its downtrend.  Monthly growth data from Spain, France, Germany and the eurozone as a whole has all undershot expectations, which suggests that Draghi is being more than a little overoptimistic with respect to his expectations that the region’s recession will stabilise soon. Naturally, events in Cyprus have hurt confidence and sentiment gauges.

Sterling has recently posted seven-week highs of €1.1890, although this pair currently trades over a cent off this level. We do see GBP/EUR recovering further in the weeks ahead, particularly if the BoE delays QE this month and the UK services figure is solid. Asian reserve managers already appear to be responding to eurozone developments by taking a step back from the euro. We see this trend continuing, which could take this rate as high as €1.20 in the weeks ahead.

GBP/USD

Sterling finally enjoys a bounce

There is no doubt that sterling’s safe-haven status has waned in recent months, in line with the loss of the UK’s AA credit rating. It has therefore been no surprise to see the USD benefit from the lion’s share of safe-haven currency flows stemming from increased tensions in the eurozone. Nonetheless, the pound has managed to eke out some gains in the past three weeks or so, despite the uptrend in US economic figures.

Those economic figures have revealed a particularly strong increase in US retail sales and industrial production. However, with housing market data mixed and consumer sentiment gauges indicating some weakness, there remains more than enough cause for concern to see the Fed continuing with QE3 for the time being. Indeed, the Fed recently downgraded its 2013 GDP projections in anticipation of a fiscal drag later this year.

More improvements in US labour market

As ever analysis from inside the Fed and therefore throughout the market, will focus on the US labour market, from which the news has been distinctly positive over the past few weeks. The US unemployment rate dipped back down to 7.7% in February- its lowest level since February 2009, while the headline figure revealed 236,000 jobs were added to the payrolls – the biggest monthly increase in a year. There is plenty here to fuel the Fed hawks’ calls for scaling back QE3 but the bottom line is that Bernanke and his fellow doves still require further progress. They may well get what they want as this Friday’s key US labour market update once again promises to be robust.

There were some notable phrases within the Fed’s March statement, among which was the emphasis that the central bank has the ability to vary the pace of QE3 in response to changes in the US economic outlook. So it really does seem as if they are gearing us up for fazing QE3 out, though this remains conditional to labour market progress.

Sterling may well face some short-term weakness if the UK services figure disappoints and there is room here for a move down to $1.5050. However, our baseline scenario is for a further upward correction for this pair. A move up towards $1.55 is possible in the weeks ahead, though this comes with the caveat that the UK must avoid a triple-tip recession (no sure thing). Beyond this near-term upward correction, we maintain a negative outlook for this pair in H2 2013, in line with our positive outlook for the US dollar.

GBP/EUR: €1.20

GBP/USD: $1.53

EUR/USD: $1.27

Richard Driver
Analyst – Caxton FX

For the latest forex news and views, follow us on twitter @caxtonfx and sign up to our daily report.

Caxton FX Weekly Outlook: Things looking up for GBP

Cyprus does what’s necessary but the market remains wary

Cyprus has agreed a deal with the Troika which will see them receive urgently needed loans amounting to €10bn. Though the measures that are part of the deal are likely to leave the country in a prolonged economic depression, disaster has been avoided as far as the wider implications of a euro-exit are concerned. Eurozone-wide contagion appears to have been avoided, for now at least.

The country’s second largest bank, Laiki Bank, will be wound down, with its ‘good assets’ becoming part of the Bank of Cyprus. Large depositors are likely to be hit and hit hard, possibly facing losses as high as 40% - much to Russia’s chagrin. In response, Russian PM Medvedev has bitterly questioned the role that the EUR is to play in Russia’s currency reserves, though we don’t attribute much substance to this.

The deal certainly hasn’t triggered a relief rally for the euro, quite the opposite in fact. Meanwhile, data from the eurozone has been poor again in the past week. The French, German and overall eurozone PMI updates for March made for a sea of red. The recession in the region is deepening and it is a concern to see German manufacturing dipping back into contraction territory. Once again, this really puts the UK’s weak figures into some perspective; we are not the only ones struggling. Unsurprisingly, the latest German business sentiment update has also been hit by events in Cyprus.

MPC minutes trigger some sterling positivity

Last week’s minutes blew the dust of some genuine sterling demand, which was unexpected given the state of UK economic updates over the course of February. Mervyn King was unable to add to the 3-member faction of doves with the MPC, while perhaps even more significantly the minutes noted a desire to avoid “an unwarranted depreciation in the pound.” Added to this, the UK retail sales figure for February was excellent, revealing 2.1% growth, which more than made up for January’s snow-hit start to the year.

The Fed’s QE3 outlook remains unclear

We know that the US recovery is taking decent shape and we know that there is a substantial body of opinion within the Fed that wants to begin winding QE3 down. However, we also know that Bernanke remains cautious and needs to see further substantial improvements in the US labour market. Nonetheless, Bernanke does appear to be setting the stage for an eventual reduction in the pace of Fed asset-purchases, which should be a source of dollar-strength by the summer.

End of week forecast

GBP / EUR	1.1875
GBP / USD	1.5200
EUR / USD	1.28
GBP / AUD	1.45

The pound is looking a little firmer across the board in light of positive domestic developments and ongoing tensions in the eurozone. Against the USD, we now see the recent dip below $1.49 as a temporary base from which it will continue mounting a recovery. Losses in the EUR/USD pair are likely to make it slow and limited progress on the upside, but we do expect GBP/USD to see levels closer to $1.55 in the coming weeks. The picture for GBP/EUR is also looking a little brighter, with a test of February’s highs above €1.18 a very likely development in the near-term.

Richard Driver

Currency Analyst 

CaxtonFX

Bumper UK retail sales data provides some hope for sterling

Data this morning revealed that UK retail sales grew by a whopping 2.1% in February, which is an excellent result, particularly given the dire economic figures that have surfaced over Q1. This is the biggest monthly increase in three full years. Clearly plenty of this can be attributed to a natural recovery from a fairly empty high street in January as a result of the snowy weather. However, the strong showing can’t be entirely attributed to a bounce back and driving the growth in particular was strong demand for computer tablets, sporting goods and jewellery.

We can expect an overall improvement in UK retail sales over Q1 as a whole, which should enable the UK to avoid the dreaded triple-dip recession when the GDP data is released on April 25. In turn, this may well ensure that Mervyn King, Paul Fisher and David Miles remain the three doves voting in favour of QE at next month’s MPC meeting. That certainly doesn’t mean more won’t be convinced by May, which is an important Inflation Report month.

Yesterday’s UK Annual Budget provided a little bit of help for UK households in the form of a scrapped increase in fuel duty. However, real wages are still on a downtrend and UK inflation has also ticked higher lately, so we can be pretty confident that this morning’s UK retail sales won’t be replicated any time soon. Still though, good news is good news and sterling has benefited from it today. GBP/EUR is trading at €1.1750, only marginally lower than its highest level since Feb 10. Against the US dollar, sterling is trading close to the top of its one-month trading range, having just edged half a cent lower from $1.52.  

Richard Driver

Currency Analyst

Caxton FX